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Wednesday, August 19, 2015

откъси от най-новия анализ на Варуфакис







            За първи път видях едната от тези книги в книжарница в Митилене, на остров Лесбос, през септември 2012 г.
            Всъщност "Глобалният Минотавър. Действителните причини за кризата" е написана и публикувана на английски език през 2011 г., а през 2012 г. се появява и гръцкият превод.
Eто и други негови книги, които са го направили популярен в Гърция и сред някои академични общности.
           "В разговор с дъщеря ми за икономиката" е сравнително нова. Това лято книгите му се продаваха навсякъде, дори по щандовете за сувенири, шапки, слънчеви очила и прочие плажни джунджурии.

            Вчера "Гардиан" съобщи накратко за току-що публикуваните подробни коментари на проф. Янис Варуфакис към текста на споразумението между гръцката държава и нейните кредитори от т. нар. тройка. Ето я вчерашната публикация там.

           Текстът на споразумението беше гласуван миналата седмица в Парламента на Гърция, а гласуването му в Германия и други европейски институции и парламенти предстои.

            Коментарите на Варуфакис, критични, язвителни и мрачни, са публикувани на неговия личен уебсайт: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/08/17/greeces-third-mou-memorandum-of-understading-annotated-by-yanis-varoufakis/

           Какво предвижда тригодишният план и как го коментира Варуфакис?

          Текстът на официалния документ е в традиционния цвят, а коментарите на Варуфакис след почти всички параграфи са в синьо. Но накрая има и две кратки приложения, съдържащи алтернативните предложения, с които Варуфакис се е опитвал да пребори заемодателите до 5 юли тази година, през 5-те месеца, когато беше финансов министър.





Избирам си няколко пасажа от това, което вчера следобеда четох сравнително внимателно.

Първият коментар, на с. 3-4:

A modern State and public administration (section 5) shall be a key priority of the programme. Particular attention will be paid to increasing the efficiency of the public sector in the delivery of essential public goods and services. Measures will be taken to enhance the efficiency of the judicial system and to upgrade the fight against corruption. Reforms will strengthen the institutional and operational independence of key institutions such as revenue administration and the statistics institute (ELSTAT). [Independence of the tax administration and the statistical office from political interference was also our government’s policy. Except that we were equally keen to ensure the tax authorities’ independence from corporate interests and ELSTAT’s independence from the troika. And we proposed to do this by placing both independent authorities under the purview of Parliament. This MoU foreshadows that Parliament will have a cosmetic role – that the real bosses of tax administrators and ELSTAT are the Euro Working Group, i.e. the troika, Eurostat, and the local vested interests who are mostly responsible behind corruption and rent seeking.] Success will require the sustained implementation of agreed policies over many years. [i.e. the Greek Parliament’s sovereignty is rescinded while it remains insolvent, which will be a long, long time as long as the Eurogroup refuses to discuss serious debt relief.] 


Вторият коментар, на с. 18 и 19:

2.4.2 Public procurement 

Greece needs to take further action in the area of public procurement to increase efficiency and transparency of the Greek public procurement system, prevent misconduct, and ensure more accountability and control. [ This is the mother of all understatements. Procurement is one of a triad of sins and its lucrative naturecan be inspected by driving around Athens’ northern suburbs. The troika has never, in the past five years, tackled this festering wound. Will they now? If they do they will have to turn against the oligarchs whose media have been spreading the troika’s propaganda over the five months of our intense negotiations. If they troika turns against them, to fulfil these promises and pledges, it will be the most remarkable turn around in the history of political economics. But don’t hold your breath dear reader!] By September 2015 the authorities will agree with the European Commission, which will assist on implementation, an action plan to spell out the details of the actions below (key deliverable).


Следващият коментар, на с. 28 и 29:

Restoring liquidity and capital in the banking system 

he authorities are committed to preserving sufficient liquidity in the banking system [i.e. reversing the liquidity squeeze with which the ECB suffocated our government, implementing the very European coup which led to PM Tsipras’ capitulation on 12th July.] in compliance with Eurosystem rules and to achieving a sustainable bank funding model for the medium term. In this context, banks will be required to submit quarterly funding plans to the Bank 29 of Greece (BoG) so as to ensure continuous monitoring and assessment of liquidity needs. The authorities will monitor and manage the process for the easing of capital controls taking account of liquidity conditions in the banking system while aiming to minimise the macroeconomic impact of the controls. [Troika-speak for: We messed up already stressed banks to get you to surrender and now we will take our time to recapitalise them with your money but ensure that we, the troika, controls the process fully.] 

на с. 37 и 38:

Education. The authorities will ensure further modernization of the education sector in line with the best EU practices, and this will feed the planned wider Growth Strategy. The authorities with the OECD and independent experts will by April 2016 prepare an update of the OECD's 2011 assessment of the Greek education system. This review will cover all levels of education, including linkages between research and education and the collaboration between universities, research institutions and businesses to enhance innovation and entrepreneurship (see also section 4.2). Inter alia, the review will assess the implementation of the 'new school' reform, the scope for further rationalisation (of classes, schools and universities), functioning and 38 the governance of higher education institutions, the efficiency and autonomy of public educational units, and the evaluation and transparency at all levels. The review shall propose recommendations in line with best practices in OECD countries. [Without a single fresh euro spent on education, of course.] Based on the recommendations of the review, the authorities will prepare an updated Education Action Plan and present proposals for actions no later than May 2016 to be adopted by July 2016, and where possible measures should enter into force in time for 2016/2017 academic year. In particular, the authorities commit to align the number of teaching hours per staff member [i.e. make demoralized, underpaid teachers teach longer hours], and the ratios of students per class and pupils per teacher to the best practices of OECD countries to be achieved at the latest by June 2018. The evaluation of teachers and school units will be consistent with the general evaluation system of public administration. The authorities will ensure a fair treatment of all the education providers, including privately owned institutions by setting minimum standards [i.e. give privileges to private schools and shift the burden of education onto parents].


на с. 45-46:
Transport and logistics

On transport and logistics, the authorities will by June 2016 adopt a general transport and logistics master plan for Greece covering all transport modes (road, railways, maritime, air and multi-modal) and a time-bound action plan for the logistics strategy, as well as implementing legislation of the logistics law (key deliverable). On maritime transport, by [October 2015], the Government will align the manning [how about “personnel”, instead if “manning”? Sexism rules OK in the troika corridors] requirements for domestic services with the one for international lines, while respecting bestpractice safe manning principles, and adopt the legislative changes. The Port regulator will become fully operational by June 2016. The Government will adopt the Presidential Decree setting out the operational structures of the regulator by [October 2015] (key deliverable). The Government will seek technical assistance to define the tasks of the port regulator, the role of the port authorities, and to prepare its internal regulations and needed laws to be adopted by March 2016 in order to ensure its full functionality. [Greece has had perfectly functioning ports since antiquity. It is offensive to impose upon the Greek authorities “technical assistance” on this matter. But then again, the troika takes pleasure in giving offence to the Greek authorities. So be it…] In support of this reform agenda on network industries, the authorities intend to use technical assistance as needed, including on the strengthening of regulators and on logistics. [More technical assistance. Just what the doctor ordered!] 


Още един коментар по отношение на обществения транспорт и намеренията за приватизацията му, на с. 50-51:

As prior actions, the authorities will align non-wage benefits such as per diems, travel allowances and perks, with best practices in the EU, effective 1 January 2016. [If it does, it will increase costs substantially in view of the fact that, currently, state employees are often offered next to no assistance when they travel from one part of the country to another on official business.] By September 2015, the authorities will adopt through legislation the restructuring plan for 'OASA - Transport for Athens' agreed with the institutions (key deliverable). [OASA, the public transport utility of Athens has always been a troika target. The troika intensely dislikes the relatively low fees and the thick network of buses and other means of transport that have helped Athenians overcome chronic market failures. Breaking it up, privatising, and generally reducing its accounting cost – at huge social cost – is part of the planning here.] 

И накрая, последният обобщаващ и прогностичен коментар на проф. Варуфакис за ефектите и механизмите на приватизацията, на с. 48 и 49 от неговия анализ, публикуван в понеделник:


4. According to the Euro Summit Statement the monetization of the assets will be one source to make the scheduled repayment of the new loan of ESM and generate over the life of the new loan a targeted total of EUR 50bn of which EUR 25bn will be used or the repayment of the recapitalization of banks and other assets and 50% of every remaining euro (i.e. 50% of EUR 25bn) will be used for decreasing the debt to GDP ratio and the remaining 50% will be used for investments. The Task Force will identify options and make recommendations on how this will be operationalized. [This is tragic. This Fund will never, ever generate 25 billion euros, especially after the current spates of privatisations are completed and these valuable public assets are dispensed with in a fire sale. (Even if by some miracle it generates more than 25 billion, the next 12.5 billion will be paid to Greece’s creditors. Only after that will the state get some pennies to invest in growth.) Which means that the Fund’s income will be all used up to repay 49 the new state debt on behalf of bankers. So, this is what will happen: Take the case of a public asset that the Fund sells or leases for X euros. These euros will be used to repay part of the recapitalisation of some bank, say Pireus. In essence, Greek taxpayers will have liquidated an asset of their for X euros to give to Pireus bank in exchange for shares that will end up in the HFSF (the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund). Only these shares have no voting rights, which means that the private shareholders of Pireus will not see their power over the bank diluted even by one euro. Additionally, following the troika-imposed “strengthening of the HFSF’s governance”, the Greek government has committed to never changing the legal framework governing the HFSF and, thus, to never regaining the right to give voting rights to the shares the taxpayers paid for through the liquidation of the Fund’s asset. Lastly, note the complete loss of national sovereignty involved in this “public asset monetisation”: It will be handled by a Fund and end up in shares owned by the HFSF both of which (Fund and HFSF) are totally under the thumb of the troika. 

Never before has a state been taken over so fully with the consent of its Parliament! 

Could things be different? 

See Appendix 1 for the proposal I had put to our European partners prior to our government’s capitulation. See also here for a relevant article.]



      транспарант пред автогарата в Левкада; снимах го на 7 август; част от предизборната агитация на привържениците на позицията OXI на референдума, който се проведе на 5 юли тази година; противопоставящите се на новия заробващ заем при гласуването на референдума бяха над 62% от гласувалите; щракнете, увеличете и прочетете; текстът на транспаранта казва с три фрази онова, което и проф. Янис Варуфакис подробно предлага в анотирания анализ на т.нар. "Меморандум за разбирателство" (Memorandum of Understanding, sic!)

3 comments:

dapostolova said...

Eто документа с бележките на Варуфакис преведен на български http://glasove.com/categories/komentari/news/syglasie-postignato-na-evropejskata-sreshta-na-vyrha-s-belejkite-na-qnis-varufakis

dapostolova said...

А ето моят коментар по споразумението правен на 19 юли. https://www.facebook.com/doraapostolova/posts/979910275373805?pnref=story

dimka said...


Здравейте,

Много Ви благодаря за включването.
Това, което е преведено в "Гласове", е предишният текст на Варуфакис, написан и публикуван от него през юли месец на личния му сайт.
https://varoufakis.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/eurosummit-communique-terms-of-surrender.pdf

Извадките и откъсите, които направих тук, са от най-новия му и много по-подробен анализ,
публикуван току-що, в средата на август.
Коментарите му от август по смисъл са същите като юлските, няма как човекът да се промени.

Но августовската публикация е много по-голяма, 62 страници е, много по-подробна е и аргументирана в детайлите.

Освен това завършва и с две приложения за алтернативните му предложения, докато е бил финансов министър и преговарящ.